Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Poll: Obama leads in Battleground States

Mitt Romney bragging about how many people he fired and how he hates poor people.
A Cayman Islands Bankers best friend.

According to a poll released Wednesday shows President Obama by a small margin beating Regressive Republican Mitt Romney in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. These 3 battleground states went Obama in 2008, but the question is will they go his way again this year?

The poll from Quinnipiac University shows:
Obama vs Romney in each of these key states - [no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them]:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 45 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 38 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 - 39 percent.

President Obama has a winnable margin of victory over Regressive Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida. If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election.


How surveys or polls are done matters greatly as to their actual accuracy, this is how Quinnipiac University Polling Institute did it:
From June 19 - 25, surveyed:

1,200 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,237 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
1,252 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Live interviewers called land lines and cell phones.

 

Bottom Line: Results may vary....

The last line is critical, younger voters tend to use cell phones while older people tend to be reached at land lines. In a survey if all your calls were to land lines your results would be skewed towards what older people think. If you use strictly cell phone numbers, then the opposite would be true.  If you call mostly urban markets, then that would likely get you more Black or Latino voters. If you choose to call mostly rural or suburban markets, then it would be skewed towards whites. Further if the markets you called were mainly wealthy areas that would likely skew it even further to the Republican side.

Sources:

June 27, 2012 - Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania Swinging To Obama, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds; Voters Back President On Immigration, Split On Economy

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